| Paper Details:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (the author) in the book
Fooled by Randomness, means by the "black
swan principle," and use that principle to
critique the usefulness of the capital asset pricing
model (CAPM.)
Randomness, or luck, has been an obsession of
msen, great and humble alike, since the beginnings
of history. In past times, when the Gods made
sport of mankind. In present times, still, the
role of chance in our lives has been under-appreciated.
Whether genetic or cultural, modern man seeks
to find patterns and reasons for actions. Nobody
wants their success to be attributed to dumb luck
-- and in cases of tragedy, there is an urgent
need to find the cause and assign responsibility.
Concepts like "survivorship bias,"
"black swan events," "fat-tailed
distributions" are explained along with clever
stock market scams and why the chances of 2 people
at a celebration having the similar birthday isn't
as unlikely as you might imagine. He turns the
time-honored lament, "if we're so smart,
why aren't we rich?" on its head: "If
you're so rich, why aren't you smart?" he
asks. More importantly, are successful people
good, or just lucky? And most importantly, how
can you know?
|